Voters in Fairfax Co. select their nominees to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly

Democrats and Republicans prepare to select their respective candidates on Saturday for a special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District seat.

The seat, which represents Fairfax City and much of Fairfax County in Congress, has been vacant since Connolly’s death on May 21. Those nominated to represent their respective political party will face off Sep. 9 in a special election.

“This has been an incredibly fast process,” Erin Covey, U.S. House of Representatives editor at The Cook Political Report, told WTOP.

The winner of September’s special election will carry out the remaining year and three months of Connolly’s unexpired term in the House.

How to cast your vote

Democrats held an all-day caucus at 17 locations as polls closed at 7 p.m. Registered voters could vote at any of the locations. Those not registered but eligible to vote could fill out a voter application form at a caucus site and cast a provisional ballot.

The party’s process to select a congressional nominee began Tuesday as it held three days of voting prior to Saturday’s caucus, in a process known as a “firehouse primary.” The district’s Democratic committee said on Friday that 5,085 early votes were cast in those three days.

“Voters have had opportunities to cast ballots early throughout this week, but the bulk of the voting will take place (Saturday), which is obviously not a normal day to hold elections,” Covey said. “But because it’s a special election, we have special circumstances.”

Republicans will nominate their candidate through a party canvass at Fairfax High School from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Registration will be available on-site. Curbside voting will be available.

3 emerge as potential favorites for Democrats

Since Connolly won the seat in 2008, Virginia’s 11th Congressional District seat has remained entrenched with the Democratic Party.

With the growing demographics and politics of Northern Virginia, Covey said the winner of the “Democratic primary contest will essentially decide control of the seat, since it is safely blue.”

In what began as a crowded field of nominees for the vacant seat, three choices have emerged as favorites for Democratic voters.

James Walkinshaw, a current Fairfax County supervisor and Connolly’s former chief of staff, began the process as the front-runner. He received an endorsement from Connolly before his death, along with support from Rep. Don Beyer and former Rep. Jennifer Wexton, among other local elected officials.

However, Walkinshaw has received criticism for the amount of support he’s received from the late congressman, “which some of his opponents believe is unfair,” Covey said.

She said campaign funds from Connolly’s old campaign were transferred into a super PAC that supports Walkinshaw. Then, Connolly’s X account released a post — its first since his death — linking to Walkinshaw’s campaign site, a move that received additional backlash on social media.

Candidates who have taken advantage of the negative attention Walkinshaw received include state Sen. Stella Pekarsky, whose district includes part of Fairfax County, and state Del. Irene Shin. Both have experience in state politics and established bases to compete with Walkinshaw, Covey said.

In the final days of the race, Pekarsky’s campaign believes they have “a decent shot” of winning, Covey said. She’s received key endorsements from her colleagues in the Virginia Senate, including Senate President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas and Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, as well as Fairfax County Federation of Teachers.

Shin, who represents Chantilly and Herndon in the Virginia House of Delegates, has established a well-funded campaign, Covey said. Before the primary, she receive the support from Ghazala Hashmi, the first Muslim to serve in Virginia’s Senate, who recently won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor.

If either Pekarsky or Shin win, Covey said it would continue a growing trend seen in the Democratic Party nationwide, where lesser-supported candidates defeat highly endorsed picks made by the party.

“This will be the first test of whether that kind of broader mood actually translates into votes, because the late congressman was incredibly popular and is still well loved,” Covey said.

“So his endorsement of Walkinshaw goes a really long way, which is why Walkinshaw started out this race as the clear front-runner, thanks to his support from the late congressman.”

The remaining Democratic candidates are:

Candice Bennett, a current member of the Fairfax County Planning Commission
Ross William Branstetter IV, businessman
Dan Lee, health care technology entrepreneur
Leopoldo Martínez Nucete, former senior counselor of the Minority Business Development Agency and a former deputy to the National Assembly of Venezuela
Amy Papanu, former CIA operations officer and national security expert
Priya Punnoose, psychiatrist
Amy Roma, energy policy lawyer

Republicans look to take back congressional seat

Prior to Connolly taking over the seat, Republican Tom Davis served the district for 13 years.

Now, seven Republicans are looking to flip that seat back to red after a 17-year stranglehold. Candidates have tried to get out in the public by hosting a candidate forum and will being accessible to voters during Saturday’s canvassing.

Yet, according to Covey, the Republicans’ chances of reclaiming the seat will be a more challenging task, since the district has shifted to become more Democratic.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district against President Donald Trump in the general election by double digits, Covey said. She added that anti-Trump sentiment could be brewing within its population, which is filled with federal workers who may have been affected by recent job cuts in the federal government.

The party’s chances of flipping the seat in September are “slim to none,” Covey said.

“It is a special election with a really low turnout, so strange things can happen in special elections,” Covey said. “But what we have seen from special elections, thus far this cycle, is that Democrats tend to be the party that overperforms in these low turnout contests across the country.”

The candidates seeking to be the Republican Party’s nominee are:

Nathan Headrick, investment banking executive
Karina Lipsman, nominee for Virginia’s 8th Congressional District in 2022
Arthur Purves, president of the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance
Lucas Rand, retired U.S. Army officer and combat veteran, current hospital administrator in District 11
Mike Van Meter, behavioral therapist and nominee for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District in 2024
Stewart Whitson, U.S. Army combat veteran, former FBI Special Agent and current director of federal affairs for a conservative think tank
Sam Wong, army veteran